Everette Gardner

Professor - Chair of Decision and Information Sciences

Everette Gardner

Bio

Everette S. Gardner, Jr. is Fellow of the Honors College and Professor of Decision and information Sciences at the University of Houston. He received the Ph.D. in Business Administration from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Dr. Gardner served twenty years in the U.S. Navy and retired with the rank of Commander, Supply Corps. He is a Vietnam veteran, and served in USS James C. Owens (DD-776) and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69). He also held senior Navy positions in inventory management and operations research. His decorations include the Meritorious Service Medal (three awards), the Joint Service Commendation Medal, the Navy Achievement Medal with Combat "V", and numerous campaign and unit awards.

His publications include more than fifty research articles in journals such as Management Science, Interfaces, Decision Sciences, Omega, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Journal of Forecasting, and the International Journal of Forecasting. Dr. Gardner has authored or co-authored four books, including Quantitative Approaches to Management (8th edition) from McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York.

In 2006, Dr. Gardner's article, "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art," was ranked as the third most influential article in forecasting published during the last 25 years. The ranking appeared in an article by Robert Fildes, The forecasting journals and their contribution to forecasting research: Citation analysis and expert opinion, (International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2006). Fildes based the rankings on a poll of Associate Editors and Fellows of the International Institute of Forecasters.

In 2007, Dr. Gardner was elected a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters. This honor was based on both service to the Institute and research contributions, particularly the development of the damped trend method of exponential smoothing, which has become a benchmark for forecast accuracy. For more information, go to http://forecasters.org/fellows.html.

Dr. Gardner has served on the editorial boards of four scientific journals: Management Science, Interfaces, the Journal of Forecasting, and the International Journal of Forecasting. He is past president and board member of the International Institute of Forecasters.

As a consultant in forecasting and operations management, Dr. Gardner has served numerous companies. Some of his clients include Alamo Water Refiners, Burroughs Wellcome, Centel Communications, Chantal Cookware, Compaq, Continental Airlines, Delta Airlines, Exxon, Frito-Lay, Hawaiian Airlines, the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, IBM, IMSL, the NASA Johnson Space Center, Riviana Foods, OGCI Management, Inc., New York Telephone, Pennzoil, Randalls Food Markets, Shell, Southwestern Bell, Sony Music, Spring Communications, Telecheck Services, Tenneco, Texaco, Toshiba, and Visual Numerics.

Dr. Gardner's interests include baseball, competitive pistol shooting, Confederate military history, U.S. and British Naval history, tomato gardening, and training dogs. His Australian Shepherd, Milo, is a therapy dog who visits patients in Houston-area hospitals and nursing homes.

Further biographical information on Dr. Gardner is available in Who's Who in the World, Who's Who in America, Who's Who in Science and Engineering, Who's Who in the Media and Communications, and Who's Who in American Education.

Research Interests

  • Forecasting
  • Inventory management

Areas of Expertise

  • Time series analysis
  • Scenarios
  • Business cycles
  • Inventory control systems
  • Forecasting commodity prices
  • Detection of turning points in price series
  • Scenario analysis of energy markets

Publications

  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Dimensional Analysis of Airline Quality," Interfaces, forthcoming.
  • Diaz-Saiz, Joaquin and Everette S. Gardner Jr. "Exponential Smoothing in the Telecommunications Data." International Journal of Forecasting. [2007]
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and J. Diaz-Saiz, "Seasonal Adjustment of Inventory Demand Series: A Case Study," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 18, No. 1 (January, 2002), pp. 117-123.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., E. A. Anderson-Fletcher, and A. M. Wickes, "Further Results on Focus Forecasting vs. Exponential Smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, No. 2 (June, 2001), pp. 287-293.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Rule-Based Forecasting Vs. Damped-Trend Exponential Smoothing," Management Science, Vol. 45, No. 8 (August, 1999), pp. 1169-1176.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and E. A. Anderson, "Focus Forecasting Reconsidered," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13, No. 4 (December, 1997), pp. 501-508.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and J. M. Ivancevich, "Productivity in the U.S. and Japan: A Reexamination," Interfaces, Vol. 24, No. 6 (November - December, 1994), pp. 66-73.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Forecasting the Failure of Component Parts in Computer Systems: A Case Study," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 9, No. 2 (August, 1993), pp. 245-253.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Evaluating Forecast Performance in an Inventory Control System," Management Science, Vol. 36, No. 4 (April, 1990), pp. 490-499.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and E. McKenzie, "Seasonal Exponential Smoothing with Damped Trends," Management Science, Vol. 35, No. 3 (March, 1989), pp. 372-376.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and E. McKenzie, "Model Identification in Exponential Smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 39, No. 9 (September, 1988), pp. 863-867.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and S. Makridakis, "The Future of Forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, No. 3 (July - September, 1988), pp. 1-6.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "A Simple Method of Computing Prediction Intervals for Time Series Forecasts," Management Science, Vol. 34, No. 4 (April, 1988), pp. 541-546.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "A Top-Down Approach to Modeling U.S. Navy Inventories," Interfaces, Vol. 17, No. 4 (July-August, 1987), pp. 1-10.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and E. McKenzie, "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, Vol. 31, No. 10 (October, 1985), pp. 1237 1246.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Further Notes on Lagging Forecasts," Interfaces, Vol. 15, No. 5 (September October, 1985), p. 63.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "CUSUM Vs. Smoothed Error Forecast Monitoring Schemes: Some Simulation Results," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 36, No. 1 (March, 1985), pp. 43 47.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Exponential Smoothing: the State of the Art," (with commentary) Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, No. 1 (March, 1985), pp. 1 38.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "The Strange Case of the Lagging Forecasts," Interfaces, Vol. 14, No. 3 (May June, 1984), pp. 47 50.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "A Comparison of Investment Allocation Strategies for Distribution Inventories," Decision Sciences, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Winter, 1984), pp. 22 30.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Evolutionary Operation of the Exponential Smoothing Parameter: Revisited," Omega, Vol. 11, No. 6 (November, 1983), pp. 621 623.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "The Tradeoffs in Choosing a Time Series Method," Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No. 3 (September, 1983), pp. 263 267.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Approximate Decision Rules for Continuous Review Inventory Systems," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 1 (March, 1983), pp. 59 68.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Automatic Monitoring of Forecast Errors," (with commentary) Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No. 1 (March, 1983), pp. 1 21.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Inventory Theory and the Gods of Olympus," Interfaces, Vol. 10, No. 4 (August, 1980), pp. 42 45.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and D. G. Dannenbring, "Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: Some Guidelines for Model Selection," Decision Sciences, Vol. 11, No. 2 (April, 1980), pp. 370 383.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Box Jenkins Vs. Multiple Regression: Some Adventures in Forecasting the Demand for Blood Tests," Interfaces, Vol. 9, No. 4 (August, 1979), pp. 49 64.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and D. G. Dannenbring , "Using Optimal Policy Surfaces to Analyze Aggregate Inventory Tradeoffs," Management Science, Vol. 25, No. 8 (August, 1979), pp. 709 720. Reprinted in D. W. McLeavey and S. L. Narasimhan, Production Planning and Control, Boston: Allyn and Bacon, Inc., 1984.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "A Note on Forecast Modification Based Upon Residual Analysis," Decision Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 3 (July, 1979), pp. 493 494.

    Other Published Articles

  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "Smoothing Methods for Short term Planning and Control," Chapter 11 in S. Makridakis and S. C. Wheelwright (Editors), The Handbook of Forecasting: A Manager's Guide (Second Edition), New York: Wiley Interscience, 1987.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., "A Comment on Research on Forecasting," Interfaces, Vol. 16, No. 1 (January February, 1986), pp. 106 107.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr. and C. P. McLaughlin, "Forecasting: A Cost Control Tool for Health Care Managers," Health Care Management Review, Vol. 5, No. 3 (Summer, 1980), pp. 31 38.
  • All LOTUS articles listed below are by E. S. Gardner, Jr.:
  • "Self-correcting Forecasts," LOTUS, (January, 1992), pp. 33-36.
  • "Forecast with No Data," LOTUS, Vol. 7, No. 6 (August, 1991), pp. 42-45.
  • "How to Build a Better Forecast," LOTUS, Vol. 7, No. 5 (July, 1991), pp. 49-52.
  • "Making Quality Count," LOTUS, Vol. 7, No. 1 (January, 1991), pp. 53-56.
  • "Arranging 7-day Work Schedules to Give Every Employee Two Consecutive Days Off," LOTUS, Vol. 6, No. 11 (November, 1990), pp. 63-66.
  • "Fine-Tuning Your Forecasts," LOTUS, Vol. 6, No. 9 (September, 1990), pp. 76-80.
  • "When the Recent Past Counts More: Forecasting with Discounted Least Squares," LOTUS, Vol. 6, No. 5 (May, 1990), pp. 62-66.
  • "How to Predict Seasonal Patterns," LOTUS, Vol. 6, No. 1 (January, 1990), pp. 74-79.
  • "Anticipating Business Cycles," LOTUS, Vol. 5, No. 10 (October, 1989), pp. 40-43.
  • "Population Forecasting," LOTUS, Vol. 5, No. 9 (September, 1989), pp. 50-53.
  • "Long-Range Forecasting: the Modified-Exponential Model," LOTUS, Vol. 5, No. 7 (July, 1989), pp. 70-74.
  • "Long-Range Forecasting: The Logistic Curve," LOTUS, Vol. 5, No. 6 (June, 1989), pp. 58-61.
  • "How to Monitor Your Forecasts," LOTUS, Vol. 5, No. 4 (April, 1989), pp. 54-57.
  • "A Tutorial on the Binomial Distribution," LOTUS, Vol. 4, No. 12 (December, 1988), pp. 62-69.
  • "Four Job Schedules: Choose the One that Matches Your Priority," LOTUS, Vol. 4, No. 11 (November, 1988), pp. 54-59.
  • "Prediction Intervals for Regression Models," LOTUS, Vol. 4, No. 7 (July, 1988), pp. 50-54.
  • "How to Detect Trends and Seasonal Cycles," LOTUS, Vol. 4, No. 5 (May, 1988), pp. 44-50.
  • "Forecasting with Exponential Trends," LOTUS, Vol. 4, No. 3 (March, 1988), pp. 27-30.
  • "Project Manager, Part 1," LOTUS, Vol. 4, No. 1 (January, 1988), pp. 82-87.
  • "Project Manager, Part 2," LOTUS, Vol. 4, No. 2 (February, 1988), pp. 80-84.
  • "Four Steps to Improving Forecast Accuracy," LOTUS, Vol. 3, No. 12 (December, 1987), pp. 69-72.
  • "Testing a Regression Model," LOTUS, Vol. 3, No. 7 (July, 1987), pp. 50-57.
  • "Making Capital Investment Decisions," LOTUS, Vol. 3, No. 5 (May, 1987), pp. 57-60.
  • "Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing," LOTUS, Vol. 3, No. 3 (March, 1987), pp. 61-66.
  • "Short-Range Forecasting," LOTUS, Vol. 3, No. 2 (February, 1987), pp. 54-58.
  • "Analyzing Subjective Decisions with a Spreadsheet," LOTUS, Vol. 3, No. 1 (January, 1987), pp. 68-71.
  • "Should You Take That Quantity Discount?" LOTUS, Vol. 2, No. 6 (June, 1986), pp. 50-52.
  • "Adjusting Data for Seasonal Patterns," LOTUS, Vol. 2, No. 3 (March, 1986), pp. 62-65.
  • "Making Graphs Talk," LOTUS, Vol. 1, No. 8 (December, 1985), pp. 64-69.

Books

  • R. I. Levin, D. S. Rubin, J. P. Stinson, and E. S. Gardner, Jr., Quantitative Approaches to Management (Eighth Edition), New York: McGraw Hill, 1995.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., The Spreadsheet Operations Manager, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1992.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., The Spreadsheet Quality Manager, New York: McGraw-Hill: 1993.
  • E. S. Gardner, Jr., The Spreadsheet Forecast Manager, New York: McGraw-Hill: 1994

Contact Info

Phone:
713-743-4744
Email:
egardner@uh.edu
Room:
290B
Website:
Visit Web Site

Courses

  • DISC 4365 Forecasting, DISC 4358 Quality Management, DISC 3301H Operations Management (Honors)

Education

Ph.D. Operations Management, minor in Quantitative Methods
University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill Dissertation: Aggregate Inventory Models: Theory and Application, under the supervision of David G. Dannenbring.
M.B.A. Operations Management, minor in Marketing
University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill
B.B.A. Management, minors in Economics and Accounting.
Memphis State University, Memphis, Tennessee