Fall 2017 Symposium

Monday, November 6, 2017

"Slow Growth Returns to Houston in 2017,
Can We Bring Back the Oil Jobs in 2018?"

Featuring: Robert W. Gilmer, Ph.D.
Director, Institute for Regional Forecasting

Last fall, it appeared that global oil markets were finally ready to heal, when OPEC committed to speed things up by limiting oil production. Oil prices were expected to quickly move to $55 per barrel and beyond, and the news brought a rising rig count, the return of oil jobs, and economic optimism that spread through Houston.

Then we watched oil prices falter through the spring, and optimism evaporate this summer. Now drilling has probably peaked again, with many analysts forecasting a decline in coming months. After a fast start to 2017, Houston’s economy also showed signs of faltering this summer: July saw a reversal in oil jobs, weaker overall job growth, a big decline in the labor force, and a purchasing manager’s survey predicting sluggish growth ahead.

A sustained turnaround in drilling is badly needed to move Houston’s economy off its current slow pace. The momentum of the boom years is gone, and the Ship Channel’s petrochemical boom is ending. The U.S. economy is left as the one thin reed supporting the local economy. Where now for oil? For Houston’s population and job growth? For construction, housing, and real estate? Our Fall Symposium is an in-depth look at each of these questions.